Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0482
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 14:09:42

ACUS11 KWNS 051409
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051409=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-051515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0482
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0909 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...southern Indiana ito portions of northern
Kentucky...and southwestern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 051409Z - 051515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage through the
morning hours. Strong wind fields may support a risk for damaging
wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. A new Tornado Watch is likely
soon.

DISCUSSION...As of 1405 UTC regional radar imagery showed a complex
convective situation unfolding with multiple bands of thunderstorms
along and ahead of the slow moving cold front over the mid MS
valley. Additional incipient storms were noted over southern IN over
the last 30 min. Area RAP soundings and VAD/VWP data shows strong
wind fields (400+ m2/s2 ESRH) are in place over a moist and
moderately unstable air mass (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). As the
prefrontal storms mature, a risk for damaging wind gusts and
isolated tornadoes may evolve given the degree of low-level shear
present. Additional severe risk may also persist as the frontal
storms move in from the west. The primary concern remains damaging
winds given the mixed mode of supercells and linear structures.
However, isolated tornadoes will be possible. A new Tornado Watch
will likely be needed soon.

...Lyons/Leitman/Hart.. 04/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9JT8n_LDMwPMZETBfqvKatDmQDhyS-VKF7F4BzfKOyf0kCotlz0NMOcW72TXfG-VuDAo1JEOa=
BhLg19OKYn5WDyczgA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   40398590 40438523 40378429 39768437 38728469 38638477
            38428500 38158547 38098561 37948577 37828633 37948674
            38408696 38838769 40208706 40368652 40398590=20


=3D =3D =3D
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