Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0481
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 11:26:09

ACUS11 KWNS 051126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051125=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-051300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...far northern AR...far southern MO

Concerning...Tornado Watch 124...

Valid 051125Z - 051300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 124 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornadic supercell potential will likely focus near the
AR/MO border through 8am.  A strong tornado is possible.

DISCUSSION...A pair of discrete supercells have developed over the
Ozarks ahead of a broken squall line located on a cold front.  The
airmass ahead of the squall line in the warm sector is moderately
unstable (2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and features a moisture-rich low-level
airmass (upper 60s dewpoints over northern AR).  Rapid storm motions
(50 kt to the northeast) indicate around 450 m2/s2 0-1km SRH is
present over northern AR per KLZK VAD data.  As these supercells
continue to mature and cycle, the tornado risk will probably
increase with one or both of the supercells.  A strong tornado
(EF2-EF3) is possible.

...Smith.. 04/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-LTjCYEfr-7A0tExbJIi-KThH0DbhL9arOdPxUEdZaJS_k-Gaqgz8yXSfgC_RPPd1-5zrtjo2=
XiECT7_p8fAUZeh7io$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36749309 37149224 37129192 36939178 36619188 36059306
            36139322 36589320 36749309=20


=3D =3D =3D
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