Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0479
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 10:20:11

ACUS11 KWNS 051020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051019=20
INZ000-ILZ000-051145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...southeast IL...southwest into central IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051019Z - 051145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms primarily
capable of damaging gusts (55-70 mph) are possible this morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a linear cluster of strong to severe
thunderstorms over southern IL early this morning and embedded
within a 60-kt LLJ.  Surface observations over southwest into
central IN indicate temperatures are in the low-mid 70s degree F and
dewpoints are in the lower 60s.  KMDH (Carbondale/Murphysboro, IL
ASOS) recently observed a 58-kt gust at 0945 UTC.  The VADs at KVWX
and KIND show very strong southwesterly 0.5-2.0 km AGL flow (50-65
kt).  RAP forecast soundings over the discussion area show around
1000 J/kg MUCAPE.  The sufficient buoyancy and strength of the
low-level flow will probably support a continued risk for damaging
gusts into southeast IL/southwest IN and perhaps as far north into
central IN later this morning.

...Smith/Edwards.. 04/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5Nzjt2Ql0LMM9-nQ7txnJXg-nZPdHJ0kr1lgeegy-1O6yaUeHM-PwfyHEHMN_-59NJGdaUt5U=
YJSpkWunkd3aLp1iyg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   38088726 38068764 38268818 38638828 40408668 40558594
            40308533 39688530 38088726=20


=3D =3D =3D
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