Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0478
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 09:26:10

ACUS11 KWNS 050926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050925=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-051100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0478
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0425 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...north TX...northeast TX...far southeast
OK...southwest into west-central AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 050925Z - 051100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms over far eastern OK and near the
DFW Metroplex will likely intensify over the next 1-2 hours and pose
at least an isolated threat for large hail and severe gusts.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis indicates a dryline/pacific front is
moving east across north TX with a cold front pushing southeastward
through the Red River Valley near I-35 along the TX-OK border.  A
very moist/unstable airmass resides across north TX northeastward
into far southeast OK and southwest AR with a reservoir of near 70
deg F dewpoints and MLCAPE 2500-3500 J/kg.  Although a residual
capping inversion will likely limit storm coverage this morning, its
erosion near the boundary over north TX will probably support at
least widely scattered storm development early this morning.  The
wind profile will favor updraft organization and the risk for large
hail to very large hail (diameters 1 to 2.5 inches).  Severe gusts
may accompany any stronger cores that manage to develop during the
morning.  Less certain is the potential for a tornado or two given
the capping inversion and for storms to not quite fully ingest near
surface-based parcels.  Convective trends will be monitored for a
possible watch.

...Smith/Edwards.. 04/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4jPer-9sYHExejUNHlSWCghMuImA6W56hluaDp6h4-y2bWpVZmVgGGPsrqSltb1XHW1uV5zIa=
cEwXHDdhqgmgZ_-ikg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32289755 35429456 35519387 34869298 34299278 33769298
            32079544 31879634 31989729 32289755=20


=3D =3D =3D
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