Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0476
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 08:27:40

ACUS11 KWNS 050827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050827=20
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-051000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...central and northern IL...far northwest IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 050827Z - 051000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will probably spread into
central and northern IL from the west.  A new severe thunderstorm
watch will likely be needed over IL.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a gradual intensification of storms
near and behind the cold front draped from southeast IA and arcing
south-southwestward into central MO.  The airmass ahead of this
thunderstorm activity is moist/unstable with mostly lower 70s deg F
temperatures and lower 60s dewpoints.  Around 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE
is objectively analyzed with the SPC Mesoanalysis data.  Although
large-scale upper forcing for ascent will glance the region, the
frontal forcing will act to aid storm development as the
thunderstorms move generally east-northeast into IL early this
morning.  Isolated large hail and localized damaging gusts are
possible with the stronger storms.

...Smith/Edwards.. 04/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_NkV4wuHeU2sLBpXiWHvSeXQv_7GjoMpjN18l5Q-uDJsow7_9mFzCbedvakHOCrFYkBO_fPg_=
RP_AVZlWxdr9ezlNRs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   38698887 38468952 38689062 39249121 39899136 41898964
            42208896 42258819 42098747 41598701 41088699 38698887=20


=3D =3D =3D
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