Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 08:17:40

ACUS48 KWNS 050817
SWOD48
SPC AC 050815

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to indicate that an increasingly
amplified mid-level regime, evolving across the northern
mid-latitude Pacific by this coming weekend, may increasingly impact
the flow across North America into next week.  It still appears that
this will include digging troughing to the east of the Mississippi
Valley, and inland of the Pacific coast, through the period.
However, in the mean, guidance suggests that a split flow will also
be maintained, and the pattern may include the evolution of closed
lows becoming cut off from the primary belt of westerlies, near/east
of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and perhaps across the Southwest
by the middle of next week.

While the mid-level pattern may support and maintain surface
troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through much of the
period, it appears that the evolving perturbation over the Southeast
will hinder or preclude appreciable/deep boundary-layer moisture
return to the central and southern Great Plains.

Sizable model spread concerning the evolution of this perturbation
also may be of impact to severe weather potential across parts of
the Southeast.  At the present time though, this potential appears
best categorized as low.

...Kerr.. 04/05/2023

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