Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0475
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 07:03:39

ACUS11 KWNS 050703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050703=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-050830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0475
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...portions of central and northern AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 121...

Valid 050703Z - 050830Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 121 continues.

SUMMARY...A potential tornadic supercell corridor is beginning to
focus from near Russellville northeastward into southeast MO (thru
330am).  A strong tornado is possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery over the past hour has shown further
intensification of storms over north-central AR with the stronger
storms acquiring transient supercell characteristics.  Recent
subjective surface mesoanalysis shows a moisture axis (upper 60s
degree F dewpoints) extending from central AR north-northeastward
into northern AR and immediately east of the ongoing storms.  The
presence of moderate buoyancy (1800 J/kg MLCAPE per the Batesville,
AR RAP-model forecast sounding) and strongly sheared low levels,
will support the potential for longer-lived supercells with episodic
strengthening of the low-level mesocyclone and tornado potential.=20
If one or more of the supercells continues to mature and strengthen,
a strong tornado is possible.

...Smith.. 04/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9MkhvnPGS7JycmomssUtBD-TWLW1dsisHeK5H-0R63XBaxo_Go3NzXM3DZs6l1WjQfoHe2HMy=
ZAjqYK-ccKZwyHTBZw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35439299 37149087 37199062 37149044 36959045 35279256
            35259286 35339296 35439299=20


=3D =3D =3D
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