Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 06:47:10 ACUS03 KWNS 050647 SWODY3 SPC AC 050646 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Areas of thunderstorm activity are possible across the Gulf Coast states Friday through Friday night, but the risk for severe storms currently appears negligible. ....Discussion... While mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitude Pacific gradually begins to amplify, a more prominently amplified regime will continue to evolve downstream. It appears that this will include deep mid-level troughing from the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes into the northwestern Atlantic, with an embedded cyclonic circulation developing near southern Greenland. A much less amplified regime will prevail in the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, with broad mid-level troughing across the eastern Pacific transitioning to broad ridging across the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast into western Atlantic. One or two short wave perturbations are forecast to progress through this regime across the northern Mexican Plateau through Rio Grande Valley and northwestern through north central Gulf coast vicinity. A surface cold front associated with the northwestern Atlantic circulation is generally forecast to advance into the Southeast before stalling and weakening there, while the center of expansive cool surface ridging to the east of the Rockies shifts from the upper through lower Great Lakes. From the lower Rio Grande Valley into the Southeast, a weak return flow off the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to maintain a moist environment along the remnants of the weakened frontal zone. Moist parcels supportive of at least weak potential instability appear likely to remain rooted above a stable boundary layer across most areas inland of the coast (except perhaps a corridor roughly from southeastern Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia). This may be contributing to widespread convection and embedded thunderstorms (supported by the forcing for ascent associated with the short wave perturbations) across parts of the Texas South Plains and Edwards Plateau through the coastal plain early Friday, which appears likely to spread east-northeastward across much of the remainder of the Gulf Coast states through Friday night. ...Kerr.. 04/05/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .