Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0474
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 05:57:08

ACUS11 KWNS 050557
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050556=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-050730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...west-central AR into northern AR...southern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 050556Z - 050730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storm development over west-central and north-central AR
is being monitored for the possibility of further intensification.=20
A tornado watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar/lightning network data during the 1200-1255am
period has shown storm development over west-central and
north-central AR.  This corridor from west-central AR northeastward
into southern MO is located within a broad, moist conveyer with a
60-kt south-southwesterly LLJ over the Mid South/Ozarks into the mid
MS Valley.  The latest RAP forecast soundings show a residual
capping inversion, and it is unclear how widespread the developing
thunderstorm activity will be through the overnight.  However, the
latest storm-scale trends over west-central AR show the development
of a more persistent/intensifying updraft (echo tops 45-50 kft).=20
The KLZK VAD shows a large looping low-level hodograph with a slight
weakness around 3km ARL, and strengthening flow into the mid and
upper levels.  As a result of the moist and moderately buoyant
airmass, if updrafts can root into the boundary layer, the
probability of a supercell and a supercell-tornado threat will
likely develop.  Convective trends will be monitored in the short
term for the possibility for a tornado watch.

...Smith/Edwards.. 04/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4Onuj7kFct2aBo7Ga4vOk7BDkyRJE9UGlBrnrTGMX_8OjDxT8KAFhO3pb_KkOcswWBD32S4do=
28G-IaMLd48saOJG7Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   34429386 34729396 37369166 37549094 37509050 37219000
            36858984 34729098 34519123 34429150 34329355 34429386=20


=3D =3D =3D
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