Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0471
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 04:00:06

ACUS11 KWNS 050400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050359=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-050530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

Areas affected...Northeast Iowa...Southern WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117...

Valid 050359Z - 050530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will spread northeast into
the early morning hours. Hail remains the primary risk.

DISCUSSION...Surface low has progressed into central IA late this
evening which has allowed the downstream warm front to advance to
the WI/IL border. Low-level warm advection continues to drive a
considerable amount of elevated convection, north of the boundary,
from northeast IA into south-central WI. Latest MRMS data suggests
the strongest updrafts are producing hail, though MESH cores suggest
much of this activity is sub-severe. Even so, a considerable amount
of MUCAPE exists across this region and robust updrafts are expected
to persist well into the early morning hours. Some consideration may
be needed for extending the watch a few counties east if ongoing
convection maintains intensity.

...Darrow.. 04/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9SafADFQpPIYWlhlzvaO2SpFpY0sES1RVlWbAe8pBKB9WgaLGISIjruu8JHBwAE7iSQnFndKM=
Eh4pVTOFP5VC3wfx9Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   44049287 44018905 42418904 42459287 44049287=20


=3D =3D =3D
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