Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0469
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 01:46:34

ACUS11 KWNS 050146
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050146=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-050345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0469
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0846 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

Areas affected...Northeastern Texas...south-central
Arkansas...northwestern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 050146Z - 050345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring potential tornado threat over the next few
hours. Watch may be needed within the hour.

DISCUSSION...A conditional tornado threat is evolving across the
Arklatex region. Currently, a cluster of cells near the Arklatex
region have shown evidence of deepening updrafts with increasing
echo top heights on radar. The environment across south-central
Arkansas and northern Louisiana is conditionally supportive of
strong tornadoes, given sampling of 0-1 km SRH around 300-400 J/kg
and large, curved hodographs at SHV and LZK. RAP analysis shows STP
around 4-5 across this region over the next few hours. Should this
line of developing storms continue to intensify, a risk for strong
tornadoes will be possible especially if semi-discrete cells can
become established. A watch may be needed within the hour if trends
show continue development with increasing intensity.

...Thornton/Thompson.. 04/05/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9GZHwBqK5e8jYj6QK8cCw6wq2E4g-lKBkuX5a9TwuPR512E5h2md-xYZwnuHibT8_hxZ-QErW=
tIKEz8wg0VXH8tPpj4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   32249513 32599533 32779533 32929527 33039516 33589465
            33759448 34139417 34479366 35019257 35079220 34939182
            34619139 34299137 33699170 33229196 33079212 32829251
            32539286 32169363 32109418 32059458 32249513=20


=3D =3D =3D
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