Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 01:03:05 ACUS01 KWNS 050103 SWODY1 SPC AC 050101 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST OK ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN AR INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MO... ....SUMMARY... Tornadoes, severe thunderstorm gusts and large hail are likely tonight from the Upper Great Lakes to central Texas. The threat tornadoes continues tonight over parts of the Ozarks to the Arklatex region. ....01Z Update... ....Eastern IA...Northern/Central MO...IL... Regional radar over the past hour or so has shown a trend away from a more discrete mode over central IA, with only two significant supercells currently remaining, one over Jasper and Poweshiek Counties in IA, and the other affecting Tazewell, Peoria, Fulton, and Mason Counties in central IL. Forecast regarding the supercell in central IL was address in recently issued MCD #465, which mentions this isolated supercell may continue for the next 1-2 hours. Expectation for the remainder of the evening is for additional thunderstorms development along the front as it moves through the region. The environment remains favorable for severe thunderstorms within this line of storms, with the threat for large hail, damaging gusts, and embedded tornadoes all possible throughout the evening. ....ArkLaTex into southern MO/IL tonight into early Wednesday... Low-level moisture continues to advect northward across east TX and Lower MS Valley. This is expected to continue throughout the evening and overnight ahead of the approaching cold front, with upper 60s dewpoints likely in place across all of AR by early Wednesday morning. Mid 60s will likely stretch into central MO. This increased low-level moisture will be coupled with strengthening warm-air advection, attendant to the strengthening low-level jet, and modestly increasing large-scale ascent. Given the breadth of the warm sector and relatively broad ascent, confidence in exactly where storms will initiate remains low and could occur anywhere from northeast TX into southern MO. That being said, the overall environment continues to suggest that any mature storms should become supercellular with all severe hazards possible. There remains a serious concern for nocturnal tornadoes over AR and MO. ....South TX... Thunderstorms initiated within the very warm and moist environment across south TX. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible for the next hour or two before the onset of nocturnal cooling and resulting low-level stabilization likely results in storm demise. Additional storms are possible early Wednesday morning along the front. ...Mosier.. 04/05/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .