Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Apr 05 2023 00:02:38 AWUS01 KWNH 050002 FFGMPD WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-050600- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0155 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 802 PM EDT Tue Apr 04 2023 Areas affected...Portions of Iowa...Southern Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 050000Z - 050600Z Summary...Flash flooding will be possible through the evening and early overnight hours across portions of Iowa and southern Wisconsin as repeating rounds of thunderstorms produce intense rain rates and isolated 2-3" totals. Discussion...Convection continues to blossom early this evening across portions of Iowa, generally along and north of a stationary boundary draped across southern Iwoa into northern Illinois. Impressive upper level divergence exists over the outlook aided by a digging mid/upper leve3l trough over the Rockies/Plains. Over the next few hours, low level flow is expected to surge considerably with upwards of 50-60 kts at 850 mb bringing northward anomalous moisture levels of 1.25" PWs as well as a notable increase in MUCAPE above 2000 J/kg. Initially, more cellular convection is expected across Iowa which could backbuild and regenerate on the southern flank while further northeast, the increasingly favorable environment should support expanding elevated convection across northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin. This convection is expected to become more linear with a growing threat of training over southern Wisconsin due to the storm motions orienting parallel to the mean flow, especially after 03Z. The latest HREF neighborhood probabilities show moderate chances (30-50%) for intense rain rates of 1-2"/hr at times with localized/narrow swaths of 2-3" totals through 06Z possible, most likely across southern Wisconsin. Recent rainfall departures and soil moisture show that southern into central Wisconsin is more susceptible and vulnerable due to wetter antecedent conditions but flash flooding remains possible further into Iowa given the potential for intense rain rates overcoming flash flood guidance. Taylor ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8vXgRegYL17fC0YqylN7OHMoa2j4gC-xRJoWq4jZ7eWo_jBgOsdXZdTLjEmF442zZOo5= eyJgxnN-niz4-ppVJKC9h6U$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...GRB...MKX... ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 44638775 43498730 42808839 42659049 41729265=20 41779347 42489366 43309291 43839170=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .