Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0462
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 04 2023 22:42:04

ACUS11 KWNS 042241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042241=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-042345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0462
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

Areas affected...Northeastern Kansas and west central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 042241Z - 042345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind and large hail threat increasing. A watch
will be needed within the next hour.

DISCUSSION...A surface cold front located across central Kansas will
phase with the dry line this evening as a focus for new storm
development as the upper level wave advances into the Northern and
Central Plains. Expected broken multi-cellular lines eventually
transitioning to become more a more organized line as the front
advances eastward with time and forcing for ascent increases. The
20z sounding from TOP shows SBCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Deep layer
shear at 0-6 km is around 70 kts. Soundings profiles are
characterized by an inverted V, with low-level moisture is lacking
with dew points around 60 F with temperatures in the mid to upper
80s. Given this environment, the main threats will likely be large
hail and damaging wind. Steep low level lapse rates and 0-1 km SRH
around 200-300 m2/s2 would support some risk of a tornado or two. A
watch will be needed within the next hour.

...Thornton/Thompson.. 04/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-QhktxrOwD4_xJ3Tokf2Nsn2MOLKD9FGjrJizlyO7Ntao7oSLPnEg9eIdjqeThb47QXevgJf6=
9qnjRBCTHgOyvobSsU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   37989412 38409391 38789382 39379398 39689455 39899470
            40359522 40569561 40399595 40019623 39449650 38939661
            38519635 38229614 38099568 38049491 38039462 37989412=20


=3D =3D =3D
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