Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0461
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 04 2023 22:35:01

ACUS11 KWNS 042234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042234=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-050000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0461
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota...Northeast Iowa...Southwestern
Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 042234Z - 050000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be warranted in the
next one to two hours to account for expected increase in robust
thunderstorms across the upper Mississippi Valley.

DISCUSSION...Strong low-level warm advection remains focused across
the upper MS Valley early this evening. Warming/moistening near
850mb is contributing to an increasingly buoyant profile atop very
cool boundary layer north of the front. Forecast soundings exhibit
very steep mid-level lapse rates with latest NAM suggesting upwards
of 3000 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel near 850mb. Latest thinking
is elevated convection will begin to develop across northeast IA
then spread/develop downstream. Large hail should occur with the
strongest convection and this warrants a severe thunderstorm watch.

...Thompson/Darrow.. 04/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-wW2YxTFCGYQtZBTeYwZaM3KsQ14iK7NgZplFU5LmkKta7LoF_nJ6_CfV0vyXz-R6YzlinoF7=
U-9Xjy2cJ-6Zks8XyE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   44449324 44228932 42668921 42709356 44449324=20


=3D =3D =3D
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