Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0460
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 04 2023 20:46:00

ACUS11 KWNS 042045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042045=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-050045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0460
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

Areas affected...Portions of north-central/northeastern SD into
southeastern ND and far western MN

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 042045Z - 050045Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow with rates near 1 in/hr (locally
higher) and visibility reductions in blowing snow are possible this
afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loops and regional VWP data indicate
a strong southwesterly mid/upper-level jet streak crossing the
central Plains, which will continue northeastward this afternoon. As
the left-exit region of the jet streak gradually overspreads the
northern Plains (ND/SD) during the next few hours, a related band of
isentropic ascent (strong 0-3-km veering evident in regional VWP
data) will strengthen over the region. As the strengthening
large-scale ascent intersects the lower portions of a relatively
deep/saturated dendritic growth zone (per 12Z observed and RAP
forecast soundings), the potential for moderate to heavy snow with
rates up to 1 in/hr (locally higher) will increase this
afternoon/evening.=20

The highest snowfall rates should generally be focused along/north
of a northeast/southwest-oriented 700-mb thermal gradient extending
from southeast ND into north-central SD in the 22-00Z time frame
(and beyond). In addition, given cold surface temperatures and a
tightening surface pressure gradient coincident with the moderate to
heavy snow, blowing snow with visibility reductions are expected.
However, the potential for near-blizzard conditions will become an
increasing concern into the overnight hours as boundary-layer winds
continue to strengthen amid continued snowfall.

...Weinman.. 04/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4b8AibI5JfFPOLA8UqdY0oMxoMPtEkLHeedxhYAcG39P6IGbHOhje_Yzcq2riHV44jmF_HLCJ=
N6tRVPU71-eHTMiUDI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46290064 46919999 47349910 47779826 48019751 47989678
            47559630 46939626 46559644 46169709 45759794 45489920
            45690050 46290064=20


=3D =3D =3D
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