Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0459
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 04 2023 20:23:03

ACUS11 KWNS 042022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042022=20
MIZ000-042215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0459
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

Areas affected...portions of southwestern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 042022Z - 042215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail or a damaging gust may
accompany any of the more mature storms that can persist across
southern Lake Michigan. The severe threat is expected to remain
isolated and a WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures with a history of
efficient severe hail production and damaging wind gusts are moving
across southern Lake Michigan within a low-level warm-air advection
regime. Buoyancy is relatively scant across southern Lower Michigan.
Still, the advection of some elevated CAPE amid 8 C/km mid-level
lapse rates suggests that any storms that can persist across the
lake with appreciable intensity may be capable of producing at least
marginally severe hail and/or a damaging gust. This is especially
the case for a supercell approaching northern Berrien County into
Van Buren County. Nonetheless, any severe threat that materializes
should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not expected.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 04/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9cBJjUIT-G7XySKbS3792H498pUAItNb4f2JjAb4rIOREklqbfcQ3MwDdNOdEGLeYfHXupuuO=
BPtmZVhdw3Kbzignj8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42108655 42738632 42908618 42908573 42698535 42368522
            42038525 41898558 41928624 41938655 42108655=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.