Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0455
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 04 2023 17:54:01

ACUS11 KWNS 041753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041753=20
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-041900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0455
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

Areas affected...northeast IL into extreme southeast WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 114...

Valid 041753Z - 041900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 114
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally damaging gusts may persist
another 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms over northern IL has shown signs of
weakening over the past 30 minutes or so. MRMS MESH, along with 7 km
CAPPI indicate a general weakening trend. However, given around 1000
J/kg MUCAPE and favorable effective shear, some continued storm
organization may persist over the next 1-2 hours as the cluster
shifts northeast toward southwest Lake Michigan. With northward
extent, instability and shear become somewhat less favorable, and
storm motion will likely result in ongoing storms outpacing
northward advancing low-level moisture return. While some risk for
large hail and locally damaging gusts may persist another 1-2 hours,
the overall expectation is for storms to gradually weaken and a
downstream watch is not expected at this time.

...Leitman.. 04/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8xHXDWV4DvHXqhWH6rDvgSkY53dN5yeRX93mEjEJ2dCYMkGXAY3wxb905dcvvy791a_XAy5ty=
l_7LFE7y3TBKXsaTlY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...

LAT...LON   42218922 42578859 42738808 42758771 42678744 42148718
            41778720 41568771 41518851 41558895 41728915 41988920
            42218922=20


=3D =3D =3D
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