Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0454
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 04 2023 15:17:01

ACUS11 KWNS 041516
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041516=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-041645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0454
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 041516Z - 041645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell may continue to pose a risk for
large hail and sporadic damaging gusts across parts of northern IL
the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...An elevated supercell moving across east-central IA
into northwest IL has a history of producing large hail up to 2.5
inches in diameter and localized damaging wind gusts. This storm is
in an area of modest MUCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) and intense vertical
shear. Radar structure and evolution of this supercell has shown
potential intense rear-flank downdraft surges or possibility of
trying to develop a rear-inflow jet to transition from supercell to
bowing segment. As such, sporadic damaging gusts may continue
despite the elevated nature of the storm and a relatively cool/dry
boundary-layer. Additionally, strong shear and steep midlevel lapse
rates will continue to support large hail potential.

This cell may persist another couple of hours as it moves across
parts of northern IL along the instability gradient. Confidence in
longevity of this cell is low and the need for a watch unclear.
Given the isolated nature of convection a watch does not appear
imminent through trends will continue to be monitored.

...Leitman/Hart.. 04/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9PKOqnAFCwgf6r2ixyf4fxEyLsLAZyaPEo5CT4wOtBx2pEBNHbeE0IM0wqUHCNbhB49oQztdx=
LOctjHY-1sZC8JfmD0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41238984 41299029 41469044 41579049 41699045 41799037
            41869021 41978920 41958882 41898856 41768841 41558840
            41378851 41278876 41198921 41238984=20


=3D =3D =3D
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