Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0451
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Apr 04 2023 06:42:01

ACUS11 KWNS 040641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040641=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-041045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

Areas affected...far eastern WY...Black Hills and west-central SD

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 040641Z - 041045Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates 1 to 1.5 inches per hour (locally up
to 2 inches per hour) are likely through late tonight (5am MDT).

DISCUSSION...IR satellite imagery shows a baroclinic leaf and cloud
top cooling over the north-central High Plains/Rockies as a potent
large-scale mid to upper-level trough digs towards the Four Corners
tonight.  An intensifying precipitation shield has developed across
western SD into eastern WY during the past few hours.  Model
guidance indicates 700-600 mb frontogenesis is contributing to the
enhanced lift.  Additional orographic lift via east-northeasterly
surface to 1-km flow (per KUDX VAD) on the eastern slopes of the
Black Hills will likely augment snowfall rates.  As a result,
expecting 1 to 1.5 inches per hour to be common across western SD
into eastern WY during the overnight hours.  Locally higher rates
will likely focus on the eastern slopes of the Black Hills (2 inches
per hour possible).

...Smith.. 04/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!821YnioalC3sd3uXlYgRwt92BCZdbcCdAMMNLMR2pLnOC-RGdSPsNVKn5Gycq46nNbdxl7xmx=
1TjfILzvj3BLGZf0UU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42970347 42720454 42980483 43390485 43690477 44460383
            44940224 44970168 44750130 44420120 44150136 42970347=20


=3D =3D =3D
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