Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0450
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 03 2023 22:21:57

ACUS11 KWNS 032221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032221=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-040015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0450
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Mon Apr 03 2023

Areas affected...Northeast MS...Central/Southern AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 032221Z - 040015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
damaging gusts are possible for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a warm front from
northern MS southeastward into southeast AL and and the western FL
Panhandle. Air mass in the vicinity of this boundary is
characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s, dewpoints in
the mid/upper 60s, and moderate buoyancy. Latest mesoanalysis
estimated MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Large-scale forcing is weak,
but convergence along and in the vicinity of this boundary has
initiated thunderstorms over central AL. Additional storm
development is possible farther north across northeast MS, but the
highest coverage of storms is expected to remain over central AL.

Given the moderate buoyancy and effective bulk shear on the order of
50 kt, storms may be able to mature into a supercell or two.
Low-level flow is weak, mitigating the tornado threat, but the
presence of the warm front and potential for rotating updrafts still
suggests a non-zero risk. Primary risk with these storms is isolated
large hail, with isolated damaging gusts possible as well. Overall
storm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered,
with storm intensity expected to diminish after sunset.

...Mosier/Guyer.. 04/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9ty8bfZyhjTlvGmX7IG2wR9LAA58MQ2VyEKZPDJfwmET5jUNitEdz3HwVPmDHZCH_7wUfsDuh=
q725VbyMTkJoOm9qro$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33728967 34018899 33428723 32258594 31518551 31148604
            31528700 32318777 32928874 33318937 33728967=20


=3D =3D =3D
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