Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 03 2023 16:23:35

AWUS01 KWNH 031623
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-032149-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0154
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1222 PM EDT Mon Apr 03 2023

Areas affected...Southern AL...Southwest GA...Northern FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031619Z - 032149Z

Summary...An organized complex of thunderstorms across southern AL
and GA continues to gradually translate southeast, with new
development noted along the western flank of the activity. Repeat
instances of thunderstorms containing rainfall rates reaching
2"/hr could cause flash flooding through this afternoon.

Discussion...Radar depicts a mature complex of thunderstorms
gradually translating southeastward across southern AL and GA this
morning, along the northern periphery of an outflow-reinforced
stationary warm front analyzed in the region. On the western
fringe of this complex, visible satellite shows new updrafts
developing along the front and training within 40 kts of westerly
mean flow. Over the last hour, a 2.18"/hr rainfall rate was
observed west of Enterprise, AL which corroborates peak MRMS
hourly estimates of 1.9-2.1"/hr. Owing to the training and high
rainfall rates, FLASH CREST maintains a NW-SE oriented stripe of
100-250 cfs/smi across southern AL.

The evolving convection remains supported by a focused corridor of
30-35 kts SW'ly 850 mb flow feeding into the front as a vorticity
maxima lifts into the Mid-Atlantic. Since this morning, a
combination of insolation and inflow off the Gulf has improved the
thermodynamic environment for heavy rain production, with
1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE and PWATs of 1.4-1.6" noted along a NW-SE
axis per recent mesoanalysis estimates. A pocket of 200 m2/s2 ESRH
is also noted over far SE AL to support further dynamic
enhancement of rainfall rates.

The HRRR maintains the best handle on the ongoing convective
coverage and placement (albiet slightly too far to the northwest).
However, given radar and satellite trends, forecast rainfall
totals of 2-4" through 22z appears realistic along the main axis
of training. This could support instances of flash flooding going
into this afternoon as 3 HR FFGs vary from 2.5-4"/3 hr, which does
not account for ongoing activity.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9uTjZGve3w-TWNVnWD828MUwaOBN8ve0h2H5aYaXhdTKF_YxpHzc7d8o7U72RZk_T3Ll=
5PnUAU7GF_n4p6zpdo2GTBc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32218551 31978405 31328323 30898320 30378379=20
            30528467 30908602 31108697 31408727 31968668=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.