Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Apr 03 2023 12:40:23 ACUS01 KWNS 031240 SWODY1 SPC AC 031238 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2023 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AL/FL/GA BORDER VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Southeast States and in Texas. A more concentrated corridor with a threat for a couple tornadoes should be focused across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into early afternoon. ....Parts of the Southeast... A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the TN Valley will progress east off the Carolina coast this evening. A long-lived cluster of thunderstorms which began yesterday afternoon in north TX should persist east-southeast along a surface warm front attempting to advance northeast from the Gulf Coast. This will result in the cluster becoming gradually separated from the low-amplitude wave. Primary tornado threat should be this morning into early afternoon until lower-level winds slowly weaken and become more veered, largely paralleling the cluster. Otherwise, a threat for locally damaging winds should linger longer through the rest of the afternoon along the GA/FL border area. For additional short-term information, please see MCD 445. In the wake of this activity, a couple storms may redevelop along residual convective outflow during the late afternoon to early evening in eastern MS and AL. Negligible large-scale ascent yields low confidence but if convection becomes sustained, a strongly sheared and destabilizing warm sector may support a severe storm or two. ....Central/east TX... Moderate to large buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable supercell environment along/just ahead of the dryline in central TX. Near-neutral mid-level height change with minor downstream ridging is expected across the dryline, well removed from a deepening upper trough in the West. The ECMWF/RAP/NAM all suggest that some moistening at 700 mb will occur across south-central TX, indicative of perhaps a minor perturbation within the southern stream across northeast Mexico. Otherwise, low-level convergence should tend to be weak, but could be relatively maximized in the early evening across central TX as the dryline retreats. Most CAMs suggest a storm or two should briefly develop, but spread is fairly large in pinpointing a location. Any sustained supercell would pose a conditional risk of all hazards, but large hail is likely the primary one. ....IL/IN... Destabilization this afternoon will occur south of a quasi-stationary front that bisects MO to central IL and northern IN. However, a building mid-level ridge along with expansion of a strengthening elevated mixed layer suggests the chance for surface-based development is negligible. Still, modest isentropic lift to the cool side of the front may support a few stronger elevated updrafts this evening through tonight. A weak combination of buoyancy/shear/ascent suggests that small hail is the most likely hazard. ...Grams/Goss.. 04/03/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .