Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 03 2023 12:06:26

AWUS01 KWNH 031206
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-031629-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0153
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
805 AM EDT Mon Apr 03 2023

Areas affected...Southeast MS...Southern AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031159Z - 031629Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms containing 1-2"/hr rainfall rates
are expected to continue this morning across portions of southeast
MS into AL...supporting a flash flood threat through 1630Z.

Discussion...Regional radar mosaic and IR imagery this morning
depict an intense, focused area of mixed multi-cell and supercell
thunderstorms across southeast MS, extending into southwestern AL.
Earlier single source and MRMS estimates highlight rain rates
upwards of 2"/hr have occurred within the most intense convective
cores in MS. The continued training of this activity has resulted
in a narrow swath of elevated CREST streamflow responses ranging
from 100-300 cfs/smi across southern MS through southwestern AL.

As highlighted in MPD 152, this activity is tied in part to a
progressive 500 mb vorticity maxima and speed max translating
across the TN Valley evident on WV imagery. These dynamics are
facilitating a focused corridor of strong low-level inflow across
MS and AL, as the recent VAD at KMOB sampled 35-40 kts of SSW'ly
850 mb flow. The strong low-level jet axis favorably bisects a
NW-SE oriented warm front draped across the region to support
overrunning and repeat development of new organized convection on
the western flank of the complex. In fact, SPC mesoanalysis
estimates 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, PWATs of 1.4-1.5", and 50 kts
effective bulk shear encroaching north of the surface front.

Recent runs of the HRRR have a good handle on the ongoing cluster
across the southeast, and suggest peak rainfall totals 2-4 inches
are possible through 16Z across far southeast MS into AL where
convection trains. While antecedent conditions are dry per NASA
SPoRT 0-40 cm soil moisture anomalies, 3-hour FFGs hover around
2.5-4"/3 hrs within the region, which suggests flash flooding is
possible through this morning.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_bzl2pnW3mqXnxOVmjbEK5GB7bGCMgJaGoznkBOxtfaBRd9JHDa6B6iRUWfJ5lXDdd8V=
FMgHCsRTdBbqQvcFj63_u-g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32958612 32528525 31878538 31438643 31428804=20
            31848989 32308881=20

=3D =3D =3D
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