Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Apr 03 2023 08:34:52

ACUS48 KWNS 030834
SWOD48
SPC AC 030833

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2023

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

....DISCUSSION...
To the east-southeast of a broad and deep, occluded cyclone
initially centered near James Bay, modest renewed cyclogenesis may
occur across northern Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador Thursday
through Thursday night.  Ahead of the trailing southeastward
advancing cold front, models indicate that a narrow corridor of
destabilization to the lee of the Blue Ridge into northern Mid
Atlantic coastal areas may become a focus for strong thunderstorm
development.  While low-level wind fields and shear appear likely to
remain weak across this region, strengthening mid-level flow
(including 50-70 kt around 500 mb) could contribute to an organizing
line or cluster accompanied primarily by a risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts.  Overall, this risk still seems best
characterized by less than 15 percent severe probabilities, but this
will continue to be evaluated in subsequent outlooks for this
period.

Thereafter, low-level cooling and drying across much of the nation
east of Rockies, in the wake of the cyclone and cold front, is
expected to result in diminishing severe weather potential.  It
appears that this will be maintained through the weekend into early
next week, as a belt of amplifying westerlies emanating from the
mid-latitude Pacific likely includes building mid-level ridging
near/west of the Rockies and downstream large-scale troughing east
of the Great Plains.

...Kerr.. 04/03/2023

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