Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Apr 03 2023 08:25:22 FOUS30 KWBC 030825 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 424 AM EDT Mon Apr 03 2023 Day 1 Valid 12Z Mon Apr 03 2023 - 12Z Tue Apr 04 2023 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN AND AROUND SOUTHERN AL, SOUTHWEST GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE... No changes were made to the Marginal Risk area across portions of the Southeast Monday. The mesoscale convective complex (MCC) currently tracking across MS and AL will continue tracking southeast, as the heaviest convection follows the instability towards the Gulf Coast. The 25-35 kt LLJ has turned more southwesterly, and will continue weakening through the day into tonight. There remains some 850 mb moisture convergence along and ahead of the MCC, which is likely to continue supporting heavy convection into the morning. There is good agreement among the CAMs that the convection tracking southeast across southern AL and into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle will cover a smaller area with time, as the lighter rain to the north of the convection largely dissipates by mid-morning. HREF probabilities remain similar to the previous discussion, where neighborhood probabilities of 3" or more peak at over 60%, and 5" or more are around 30% in the southeast corner of AL. HREF EAS probabilities for 3" are closer to 15%. The combination of the expected shrinking coverage of heavy rain with time and these similar HREF probabilities suggest that the Marginal Risk remains in place. It appears likely that by sunset, much of the convection will have dissipated. Thus, with the focus for any potential flash flooding rains focused on the first half of the day, it appears unlikely that a Slight Risk will be needed at this point, but trends will continue to be monitored. Wegman Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9Pbe1y7z6ht7DmfJFFB-lMrpMG7WAi_R4a-N-ULNaq8e= G97I8vy_qG_2sZtYSge9ZpaOX1j4li3hldthdjGdwZCugkg$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9Pbe1y7z6ht7DmfJFFB-lMrpMG7WAi_R4a-N-ULNaq8e= G97I8vy_qG_2sZtYSge9ZpaOX1j4li3hldthdjGdeRCIudk$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9Pbe1y7z6ht7DmfJFFB-lMrpMG7WAi_R4a-N-ULNaq8e= G97I8vy_qG_2sZtYSge9ZpaOX1j4li3hldthdjGdhc3qMtU$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .