Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0439
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Apr 02 2023 22:25:21

ACUS11 KWNS 022225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022224=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-030030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0439
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0524 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Texas and Arklatex

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 022224Z - 030030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells with large hail and tornado potential possible
within the next few hours. A Tornado Watch will be issued downstream
of WW110 within the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A warm front that has been advancing northward across
the Southern Plains is now located across west-central Louisiana.
Along the warm front, elevated storms are ongoing and have a history
of producing 1-1.5" hail across western Texas and Oklahoma. Storms
are expected to continue tracking northeastward with new development
along and south of the warm front through the afternoon. Initially,
storm mode will be discrete along and south of the warm front before
becoming more clustered. These supercells will pose a risk of severe
hail. As the low-level jet strengthens and shifts eastward through
the evening, increasing low level shear will allow the tornado
environment to becoming more favorable. A downstream Tornado Watch
will be issued within the next 1-2 hours.

...Thornton/Guyer.. 04/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!43jCDKIDyQXnMIHPyeBUlh9Y4fkYVo51F-N-D2fBJ00pGTJuKhkys0YleKXk90CJmJM6oSWSY=
01HWnpb_CaVOnv2ZTE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   33619552 33959518 33959509 34139435 34069388 33819347
            33589325 33419288 33359260 33269245 33119215 32989203
            32879201 32569192 31809195 31379203 30959239 30849256
            30659285 30509345 30579401 30539468 30619505 30929550
            31799533 32549543 33619552=20


=3D =3D =3D
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