Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Apr 02 2023 20:02:17 ACUS01 KWNS 022002 SWODY1 SPC AC 022000 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across central to northeast Texas this afternoon through about midnight CDT. Very large hail and several tornadoes are possible, a couple of which may be strong. ....20Z Update... Convection has been gradually increasing in coverage and intensity across parts of western north TX this afternoon as a shortwave trough ejects eastward over the southern Plains. Current expectations are for supercells to develop from both the ongoing activity, and with additional development this afternoon along an eastward-mixing dryline. Large to very large hail will be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained, as steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear foster robust updrafts and hail growth. A strong tornado also remains a possibility, particularly this evening across parts of north-central TX. As convection eventually grows upscale this evening, the damaging wind threat should likewise gradually increase. For more details on the near-term severe threat across central/north TX and southern OK, see Mesoscale Discussion 437 and recently issued Tornado Watch 110. Otherwise, the Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly eastward across parts of southern/central MS for late tonight into early Monday morning, where an isolated hail/wind threat may persist. ...Gleason.. 04/02/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023/ ....TX/OK/LA... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined and compact midlevel shortwave trough moving quickly eastward across NM/Southwest TX. This trough and its associated 60-70kt midlevel jet will track across TX this afternoon and evening, providing large scale ascent for a round of intense thunderstorms. Low-level moisture is returning northward quickly this morning, with dewpoints in the 60s expected as far north as the Red River. A combination of relatively strong surface heating, very steep midlevel lapse rates, and rapid cooling of midlevel temperatures will yield a corridor of afternoon MLCAPE values ~2000 J/kg along and east of the dryline. Current indications are that thunderstorms will form quickly by mid-afternoon along and east of the dryline over western North Texas and southwest OK as the upper trough arrives. These storms will likely intensify rapidly into supercells with a risk of very large hail and a tornado or two. This activity will increase in coverage as it spreads eastward along the northern edge of rapid moisture return toward the DFW metro area. Very large hail will remain a concern, but most model guidance also shows strengthening low-level wind fields and shear, promoting an increasing risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. A strong tornado or two will be possible. By mid-evening, activity will likely congeal into an MCS tracking eastward into northeast TX and northwest LA. Damaging wind risk will increase, while the risk of hail and a tornado or two persists. There is uncertainty how far east this MCS will maintain a severe risk. Will not adjust the outlook areas at this time, but will re-evaluate the need for SLGT farther east in later updates. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .