Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0435
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 01 2023 22:55:38

ACUS11 KWNS 012255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012255=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-020030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

Areas affected...Far Eastern PA...Central/Southern NJ...Eastern
MD...DE

Concerning...Tornado Watch 109...

Valid 012255Z - 020030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 109 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for severe thunderstorms capable of all severe
hazards, including damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes, continues.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective line has strengthened over the past
hour as it moves through the more buoyant air mass in place across
the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast. Modest buoyancy persists downstream
of the line across far east-central PA, NJ, eastern MD, and DE where
temperatures remain in the 70s and dewpoints in the mid 50s.
Vertical shear also remains strong throughout this region, with
recent VAD profiles from DOX sampling over 70 kt of 0-6 km bulk
shear. This combination of buoyancy and deep-layer shear should
support a continued risk for strong to severe thunderstorms.
Additionally, area VAD profiles at DIX and DOX also show notable
low-level veering, which could support an embedded tornado or two
over the next hour or so.

Recent radar imagery has shown a trend toward forward propagation,
particularly towards central/southern NJ, where a corridor of
greater risk for damaging gusts may be developing.

...Mosier.. 04/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5NlwMjEIw42W9J6bKK7qrnCo50Wd4kSYgaaa5iMMbzsEdrRpsgc0OQVutsNiIQu1NVT_mqyBB=
d1YovM9yWHmWpI71oo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   40177533 40537465 40527441 40337411 39727431 39297458
            38647517 38567579 38827627 39277633 40177533=20


=3D =3D =3D
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