Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0431
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 01 2023 20:05:37

ACUS11 KWNS 012005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012004=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-012130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Alabama...southern Georgia...far
southwestern South Carolina and extreme northern Florida.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...

Valid 012004Z - 012130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado will
remain this afternoon with isolated thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...As of 1955 UTC, regional radar analysis showed isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a slow moving
cold front across portions of southwestern SC, southern GA, and far
southeastern AL. A few damaging wind reports have been received over
the last few hours as storms have gradually moved south and east.
The risk for damaging gusts may continue as sufficient buoyancy
(~1000 J/kg of MCLAPE) for strong updrafts exists across far
southern GA into northern FL. Vertical shear also remains sufficient
for organized short line segments and marginal supercell structures.
However, surface flow has continued to veer and weaken with
southward extent this afternoon.

Recent HRRR forecasts and observational trends suggest the primary
severe risk will remain with the more organized storms over southern
GA and eventually northern FL. Given the potential for storms to
persist in the unstable and moderately sheared environment, a risk
for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado should continue for a
few more hours.

...Lyons.. 04/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6J25fFM1eu7ELnLx3fBnXBDS82dFbzZ0pUL-1GuIFijqErliWbqa5X_Ayt_HfMaHynZvLzEgN=
PJCCXOGbKoNt8N7t8c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30808593 31008596 31378494 31768383 31978313 32378255
            32528211 32618182 32668159 32618126 32488110 32288102
            31928104 31368150 30948159 30668190 30538225 30538266
            30608448 30638524 30658562 30808593=20


=3D =3D =3D
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