Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Apr 01 2023 20:04:43 ACUS01 KWNS 012004 SWODY1 SPC AC 012002 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Northeast this evening. Isolated damaging winds will be the main threat across south Georgia this evening. ....Mid-Atlantic to southern New England this evening... The band of convection responsible for numerous wind damage reports and multiple measured severe gusts has temporarily weakened across central PA/NY. However, an increase in low-level moisture beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates across the Mid-Atlantic should result in an uptick in storm intensity this evening into eastern PA/NJ/southeast NY. A mix of line segments and embedded supercells are expected along the pre-frontal wind shift and outflow from ongoing convection, with the potential for damaging winds of 60-70 mph and a couple of tornadoes. ....Northeast Gulf coast to southeast GA this evening... A broken band of strong-severe storms is ongoing along the wind shift, near the southern fringe of the influence of the deep OH Valley midlevel trough. As forcing for ascent weakens gradually and with the onset of diurnal cooling, storm intensity should wane after 00z. In the interim, isolated wind damage and large hail will be possible with storm clusters/supercells, mainly across southeast and south central GA. ...Thompson.. 04/01/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023/ ....Northeast States... Parts of the region have been upgraded to a categorical Enhanced Risk. This is related to an initial concern for increasingly organized/fast-moving linear low-topped convection moving from eastern Ohio into western portions of Pennsylvania/New York early this afternoon. Although the immediately preceding air mass is not overly moist, ample insolation/heating via cloud-free skies in conjunction with a strong wind field and regionally observed steep lapse rates will support scenario for potentially widespread damaging winds aside from some hail. Farther east, richer boundary-layer moisture will persist closer to the coastal plain across the Delaware/Lower Hudson Valleys. While pervasive cloud cover persists at midday (roughly within 75-100 miles of the Atlantic Coast at 16z), steady clearing is expected this afternoon based on radar/satellite trends. Environment will support both a conditional supercell environment as well as persistence/potential rejuvenation of the upstream fast-moving convective line. If a few supercells materialize, tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds would all be possible, and damaging winds are otherwise probable with the inbound convective line roughly centered in the 21z-01z time frame for eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New York/NYC Metro vicinity. ....Southeast States... Deep-layer flow will gradually trend more westerly with time as the strong upper low advances east across the Ohio Valley. Pre-frontal convection currently extends from central Georgia to southern Alabama at midday, and this will continue to advance east-southeast through the day. While the primary large-scale forcing will spread well north of this region, deep-layer flow will be strong and organized clusters/short-line segments are expected. Damaging winds should be the primary concern, though some risk for a tornado or two exists as well. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .