Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Apr 01 2023 17:25:12 ACUS02 KWNS 011725 SWODY2 SPC AC 011723 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ACROSS NORTH TX... ....SUMMARY... Occasional large hail, isolated damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible during the day tomorrow, mainly across north Texas. ....North TX and vicinity through the day... In the wake of a pronounced midlevel trough now moving over the OH Valley/lower Great Lakes, a front will stall along the Gulf coast. Upstream, a shortwave trough now near northern Baja will progress eastward to the southern Plains tomorrow afternoon. In response to the approach of this trough and increasing westerly flow across the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains will result in strengthening southerly low-level flow and northward moisture advection during the day across TX. The increasing low-level moisture beneath the eastward extent of a elevated mixed layer plume will support substantial destabilization during the day across north TX. Clusters of mainly elevated storms are probable during the day in the zone of stronger low-level warm advection across northwest TX into southern OK, with sufficient MUCAPE/lapse rates for occasional large hail. Farther south, there will be a few hour window of opportunity for supercells rooted near or at the surface within the southern fringe of the stronger forcing for ascent, close to the surface warm front around mid afternoon. Mid-upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and surface heating in cloud breaks and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will drive MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg along the warm front, with sufficient deep-layer shear/hodograph length and low-level shear/hodograph curvature for supercells with all hazards. These threats will be focused along the warm front from about 20-00z, with the threat for surface-based supercells diminishing during the evening with passage of the midlevel trough. Otherwise, clusters of slightly elevated storms will spread eastward toward northwest LA/southwest AR and slowly weaken early tomorrow night. ...Thompson.. 04/01/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .