Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Apr 01 2023 16:35:37 ACUS01 KWNS 011635 SWODY1 SPC AC 011634 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES INCLUDING PARTS OF PA/NY/OH/NJ... ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST STATES... ....SUMMARY... Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Northeast this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered damaging winds and a tornado or two remain possible across parts of the Southeast through the afternoon. ....Northeast States... Parts of the region have been upgraded to a categorical Enhanced Risk. This is related to an initial concern for increasingly organized/fast-moving linear low-topped convection moving from eastern Ohio into western portions of Pennsylvania/New York early this afternoon. Although the immediately preceding air mass is not overly moist, ample insolation/heating via cloud-free skies in conjunction with a strong wind field and regionally observed steep lapse rates will support scenario for potentially widespread damaging winds aside from some hail. Farther east, richer boundary-layer moisture will persist closer to the coastal plain across the Delaware/Lower Hudson Valleys. While pervasive cloud cover persists at midday (roughly within 75-100 miles of the Atlantic Coast at 16z), steady clearing is expected this afternoon based on radar/satellite trends. Environment will support both a conditional supercell environment as well as persistence/potential rejuvenation of the upstream fast-moving convective line. If a few supercells materialize, tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds would all be possible, and damaging winds are otherwise probable with the inbound convective line roughly centered in the 21z-01z time frame for eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New York/NYC Metro vicinity. ....Southeast States... Deep-layer flow will gradually trend more westerly with time as the strong upper low advances east across the Ohio Valley. Pre-frontal convection currently extends from central Georgia to southern Alabama at midday, and this will continue to advance east-southeast through the day. While the primary large-scale forcing will spread well north of this region, deep-layer flow will be strong and organized clusters/short-line segments are expected. Damaging winds should be the primary concern, though some risk for a tornado or two exists as well. ...Guyer/Lyons.. 04/01/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .