Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Apr 01 2023 07:23:09 FOUS30 KWBC 010723 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 322 AM EDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sat Apr 01 2023 - 12Z Sun Apr 02 2023 Deep convective activity is expected to be most robust but generally progressive Saturday morning along the southern edge of a departing deep layer cyclone moving from the Great Lakes into New England. The best overlap of available moisture and instability that shows persistence is in the vicinity of the AL/GA/FL border junction. There's a bit of dispersion in the 00z QPF guidance in this region, but an inspection of one of the instability fields from the 00z GFS suggests that the mesoscale guidance/HREF are on to something regarding the highest chances (which are low) of 2"+ being across portions of the FL Panhandle, FL Big Bend, and portions of southern AL and southern GA. The 0-100 cm moisture is telling, showing a dry patch across south-central GA which allowed their removal from the Marginal Risk area. To the north across the Carolinas, the front is more progressive and moves through right as the instability is increasing. The moisture isn't overly stellar in the Carolinas either, generally below 1.5". Coordination with CHS, CAE, and ILM led to the removal of the Marginal Risk area in those regions.=20 Some 1-2" totals may occur over a relatively short period, with the FL Panhandle and surroundings most likely to experience isolated/ localized training along the tail end of a cold front.=20 Cell mergers and mesocyclones cannot be ruled out. The rapid movement of the convection will likely limit the potential for flash flooding to isolated areas.=20=20 Roth Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5QuzHpPYgp2t8yCa5JChQGW9hqtDcZKPPT8Nv7tCmWhN= aB2PDqDcQIAPv7zhq16hu7swhPx1-y0km48i2abMa1L6Iuk$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5QuzHpPYgp2t8yCa5JChQGW9hqtDcZKPPT8Nv7tCmWhN= aB2PDqDcQIAPv7zhq16hu7swhPx1-y0km48i2abMKu9k_ZQ$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5QuzHpPYgp2t8yCa5JChQGW9hqtDcZKPPT8Nv7tCmWhN= aB2PDqDcQIAPv7zhq16hu7swhPx1-y0km48i2abM2CI9wPY$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .