Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Apr 01 2023 07:07:05 ACUS03 KWNS 010706 SWODY3 SPC AC 010705 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS....WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong storms may impact parts of the central and southern Great Plains late Monday afternoon and Monday night, posing some risk for severe weather. ....Synopsis... Models suggest that large-scale mid-level ridging developing within the westerlies across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific will reach peak amplitude by the beginning of this period. As additional perturbations continue to dig to the east of this regime, inland of the Pacific coast, it appears that an amplifying lead short wave trough will pivot eastward across the Great Basin through Rockies vicinity. As this occurs, large-scale downstream mid-level ridging is forecast to build across and to the east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley, while ridging also builds near and east of the lower Mississippi Valley, to the north of persistent mid-level subtropical ridging centered near the Yucatan Peninsula. This is expected to coincide with the initiation of strong cyclogenesis from eastern Colorado through western Kansas by late Monday night. A broad belt of strengthening southerly return flow will contribute to further low-level moistening across the lower Great Plains into Mississippi Valley, as far north as a stalling frontal zone in the wake of a short wave perturbation accelerating east-northeast of the Great Lakes region through the Canadian Maritimes. This front is forecast to sharpen while slowly returning northward through southern portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region by late Monday night. At the same time, as a mid-level low of Arctic origins lingers near/southeast of Hudson Bay, associated cold surface air may begin to advance southward into portions of the northern Great Plains and upper Great Lakes region. ....Great Plains/Mississippi Valley... Beneath rising mid/upper-level heights and increasing inhibition associated with elevated mixed-layer air advecting northward and northeastward across the region, convective potential for Monday through Monday night remains unclear. The dryline across central Texas into eastern Kansas could provide one possible focus for strong thunderstorm development, either during the late afternoon into early evening, or later Monday night. Any such activity seems likely to remain rather isolated to widely scattered, but with any sustained thunderstorm development, the environment probably will be conducive to supercells posing at least a risk for severe hail. ...Kerr.. 04/01/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .