Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Apr 01 2023 06:02:07

AWUS01 KWNH 010602
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-011100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0150
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 AM EDT Sat Apr 01 2023

Areas affected...Northeast MS...Northern AL...Eastern
TN...Northwest GA...Southeast KY...Northeast GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010559Z - 011100Z

SUMMARY...Intense convection with brief but very heavy rainfall
rates of 1 inch in 30 minutes can be expected for some areas as a
quasi-linear convective system steadily progresses eastward.  Some
instances of localized flooding will be possible where short term
convective training develops through 11Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a nearly
continuous band of intense thunderstorms extending from central
Mississippi to central Kentucky, and some concentrated clusters of
convection have developed along this line with a longer duration
of enhanced rainfall rates.  This upward trend in intensity has
also been observed on recent infrared satellite scans with an
increase of cooling anvil tops.  This is happening along a
convergent 850mb zone ahead of the surface cold front where the
low level jet is on the order of 60-75 knots (70-85 mph).  The
environment near these storms is estimated to have 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE with precipitable water values of 1.4 to 1.7 inches per 5Z
SPC mesoanalysis data.  Rainfall rates on the order of 1 inch/30
minutes, and up to 0.5 inch/10 minutes, are likely with the
heaviest convection.

Recent RAP forecasts suggest as the cold front continues to
steadily move east over the next several hours, instability will
slowly start to erode from north to south, but should still be
sufficient to sustain additional storms with heavy rainfall rates.
 Portions of south-central Kentucky have already received 1-2+
inches of rainfall over the past 24 hours, and these areas are
even more vulnerable with lowered flash flood guidance values
here.  A marginal threat for flash flooding will occur where
segments of convection align with the mean wind out ahead of the
advancing cold front, beneath modestly diffluent flow aloft.=20
Overall storm totals are likely to be in the 1 to 2 inch range for
many of these areas.

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_fbcYG174kAP78Ma2LQUT0UsB9ZaWXw5UGSBwRcmJg0-MQ0IEvmOsuP9e9M5ksggeo0e=
-wSRrEjT8-p2NJiUYWofA4s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JAN...JKL...LMK...MEG...
MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37768330 37318254 36368281 35398362 34668453=20
            34168564 33928633 33628713 33538788 33398868=20
            33358982 33649033 34068975 34448911 35028826=20
            35538767 36138701 36568647 36898601 37188556=20
            37438514 37608437=20

=3D =3D =3D
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