Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Apr 01 2023 01:05:30 ACUS01 KWNS 010105 SWODY1 SPC AC 010104 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ....THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH... ....SUMMARY... A severe-weather outbreak continues this evening across a large portion of the Mississippi Valley. Multiple strong tornadoes have occurred, and long track storms remain likely. A violent tornado will be possible within the High Risk area. Swaths of intense damaging wind gusts along with very large hail are expected as well. ....01z Update... Synoptic cyclone is maturing over the Midwest this evening as deep upper low has progressed into the mid MO Valley. Fast-moving, intense 500mb speed max will translate across the mid MS Valley into the OH Valley this evening which will encourage a broad swatch of severe convection to surge across IL into IN in the next several hours. Several QLCS features have evolved ahead of this dynamic system. One surging squall line is moving quickly east across northern IL and damaging winds, along with embedded tornadoes, remain likely with this MCS as it moves toward southern Lake MI. Another elongated MCS will spread across central IL into IN later this evening. Isolated supercells are noted ahead of this activity amidst very strong shear. Tornadoes remain likely with discrete supercells, along with embedded tornadoes along the QLCS. Farther south, 00z soundings across the lower MS Valley region continue to exhibit substantial SBCAPE (2000 J/kg) with very strong shear. 00z JAN RAOB does have a notable cap near 3km but capping is only minimally observed at SHV this evening. This environment remains conducive for tornadic supercells and the most likely corridor for long-track violent tornadoes will spread from extreme southeast AR into northern MS over the next several hours. ...Darrow.. 04/01/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .