Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 31 2023 23:02:34

AWUS01 KWNH 312302
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-010500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0148
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
702 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...lower MS to lower OH Valley into western TN and
northern MS/northwestern AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312300Z - 010500Z

SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding will be possible across a broad
region of the lower MS to lower OH Valley and eastward into
portions of western KY/TN, northern MS and northwestern AL through
05Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible where cell
training occurs along with storm totals of 2-3 inches in isolated
locations.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms, including a number of
discrete supercells were noted via 2245Z regional radar imagery
extending just ahead of a cold front from western IL down into
northeastern TX. Additional pre-frontal convection was observed
from central AR into western TN, along a low level zone of
convergence that has persisted over the past few hours. The
environment just ahead of the front was estimated to have
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE with precipitable water values of 1.4 to 1.6
inches per 22Z SPC mesoanalysis data. MRMS 1 hour rainfall has
peaked in the 1-2 inch range over portions of AR with several
narrow stripes where cell training and repeating has occurred but
the flash flood threat has been tempered so far by fast storm
motions and fairly discrete modes.

Recent RAP forecasts suggest that as the cold front continues to
steadily move east over the next 3-6 hours, instability will
increase east of the MS River as 850 mb winds of 50-70 kt
transport low level moisture northward. An increase in cell
coverage is expected, more likely from western TN to the OH River,
tied to large scale lift associated with an advancing closed
low/trough currently moving from the Central Plains into the
Midwest. A threat for flash flooding will occur where segments of
convection align with the mean wind out ahead of the advancing
cold front, beneath modestly diffluent flow aloft. Rainfall rates
of 1-2 in/hr will be likely with storm totals of 2-3 across
isolated locations given the favorable environment for repeating
rounds of heavy rain.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9DptI1wprxj09ykA5jOmKqL07qK9PQF-fFECBCKGeSx-_kFsyfnTY9slam7JAcocex1y=
trfvnBsvYfMKRK9s_WzEB1w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...IND...JAN...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...
PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38678623 38438517 37208533 35568667 33668888=20
            33239085 33629175 34699161 36009039 36898953=20
            37968856=20

=3D =3D =3D
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