Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0408
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 31 2023 21:53:59

ACUS11 KWNS 312153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312153=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-010000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...portions of Central and Eastern Texas into far
Northwestern Louisiana and Southeastern Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 95...

Valid 312153Z - 010000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 95 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues. Large hail and tornadoes are=20
possible. Greatest tornado risk will be near Arklatex over the next
few hours.

DISCUSSION...Clusters and semi-discrete supercells are ongoing
across eastern Texas east of Dallas and near Arklatex. These cells
have mainly posed a severe hail risk, with reports of hail up to
1.5". Further north near Arklatex, storms are moving into a more
favorable shear environment (0-1km SRH around 250 m2/s2). These will
likely maintain more organization in the rich warm sector, which
will aid in keeping mode discrete as they advance into the region of
better shear. As such, this area will be the focus of the tornado
risk over the next few hours.  The southern cluster of cells has
merged into a more linear mode. The cold front is approaching these
cells from the west, which will support further transition to linear
modes and risk of large hail and damaging winds.

...Thornton/Edwards.. 03/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!59p-huojyIwHGxLAyyzdV7C8ucPPsSe61LSLLJ1K2UhpT_l-uLNrEnWZ1QDThCoXDt5MA6x7I=
A5iQKZi3Xb_VdSRuV4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   31249754 32009641 33309534 33809463 33999345 33929298
            33759293 33469295 32959327 32529372 31869428 31469494
            31239534 30909598 30669658 30609703 30679745 30869762
            31249754=20


=3D =3D =3D
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