Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0403
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 31 2023 20:38:30

ACUS11 KWNS 312038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312038=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-312245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...southeastern MN and south-central WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 312038Z - 312245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail may develop and spread northward
from northern IA into southeastern MN.  Locally severe thunderstorms
may also eventually spread into south-central WI towards this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows the mid-level low over the
north-central Great Plains gradually moving towards the upper MS
Valley.  Strong large-scale ascent has overspread the northern
periphery of the warm sector over north-central IA.  Scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms will likely spread downstream towards
the northeast within an adequately unstable (500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE)
and strongly sheared environment to the north of the warm front.  As
this surface-based thunderstorm activity over northern IA moves
across and north of the warm front, the storms will become elevated
but a few of the stronger storms may pose a risk for large hail.  At
this time the threat appears localized but convective trends will be
monitored.

...Smith/Hart.. 03/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4m78LmrfYj5vlcjiP1kHtm0EaMYkHL3NkL7uMREiOFAX0EfRa1BA09mRHZESJZSOB-Lz9XjKg=
MSLzh9RbBhPY4Hm9kU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   43529394 44039332 44269151 43908919 43398852 43188877
            43538996 43529394=20


=3D =3D =3D
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