Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0402
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 31 2023 20:18:29

ACUS11 KWNS 312018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312017=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-312145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0402
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Iowa Northeastern Missouri and western
Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 93...

Valid 312017Z - 312145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues.

SUMMARY...Numerous supercells are ongoing from IA, into central MO
and western IL. Severe potential is expected to increase as storms
move into strong low-level shear over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...As of 2010 UTC, numerous well-developed supercells were
ongoing across the MDT and HIGH Risk areas across the Midwest.
Storms have thus far been prolific hail producers owing to veered
low-level winds and steep mid-level lapse rates. Despite somewhat
marginal moisture (upper 50s low 60s F dewpoints), the ongoing
supercells are approaching an area of strong and greater backed
low-level winds. Area VAD/VWPS are strongly supportive of low-level
mesocyclones. The tornado risk appears to be increasing across
eastern IA, eastern MO and western IL. While widespread severe
weather of all hazards is expected over the next couple of hours,
several smaller corridors of locally greater threat are becoming
apparent across eastern IA and northern MO into western IL.

Farther south to the north of the St Louis Metro, several discreet
cells are also visible moving into a favorable environment for
tornadoes. It remains unclear if additional development will occur
to this south, but little inhibition remains. There is the potential
for additional discrete supercells to develop and track into
east-central MO and eventually western IL. Should this occur, large
hail, and tornadoes (some significant) are possible.

...Lyons.. 03/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9XI5rmbboFpqcZLltZGvtvQQCBtVNLxKuj3jRmBTKmPcGWsEaGAFtjTfj-5ENg2O6-e8hkk15=
m-GnL0nFydpuO8175Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41689368 42299357 42889313 43039234 42909106 42189029
            40878959 39138956 38828977 38299071 38129165 38149295
            38579332 39219304 39929318 40669348 41269358 41689368=20


=3D =3D =3D
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