Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0400
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 31 2023 19:07:31

ACUS11 KWNS 311907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311907=20
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-312030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...Northern IL...northwestern IN...and southern WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 311907Z - 312030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Upstream supercells will exit the eastern edge of Tornado
Watch 93 within the next 90 minutes. A downstream tornado watch may
be needed within the hour.

DISCUSSION...As of 1905 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a cluster
of supercells ongoing from eastern IA and northwestern IL. The
downstream airmass over northern IL and southern WI is rapidly
destabilizing ahead of the storms. SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE
around 500-1000 J/kg is developing as surface dewpoints approach 60
F. Very strong low-level shear from the DVN VAD/VWP (200-300 0-1km
SRH) will shift eastward favoring a supercell mode. HRRR model
guidance shows multiple supercells moving into portions of northern
IL, southern WI, and eventually northwest IN. The storm mode and
favorable environment suggests a risk for all hazards. A strong/long
track tornado will also be possible with the more dominate
supercells. A new Tornado Watch may be needed shortly.

...Lyons/Hart.. 03/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_rVof_VA-ixhSRvx6Aap8UsQvTCoDa96ilMGM9aL5V6XJ37TQZn-z5W8nhpiGB7nnSNXz0_FL=
TUPEAjl0iuAQfh22WU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   42829038 43068898 42898785 42078734 41228703 40278728
            40238800 40168864 40248912 40448961 40919033 42489056
            42829038=20


=3D =3D =3D
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