Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 31 2023 19:00:32

AWUS01 KWNH 311900
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-312300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0147
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...AR into the mid-MS Valley, western KY/western TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311856Z - 312300Z

SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain could lead to areas of flash
flooding for portions of AR into the mid-MS Valley over the next
few hours. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr and localized totals of 2-3
inches through 23Z are expected.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 1830Z showed a zone of=20
organized pre-frontal convection extending from southwestern AR
into northern AR. An axis of low level convergence has helped to
focus storms along a southwest to northeast orientation,
quasi-parallel to mean steering flow within an environment
characterized by precipitable water values of 1.4 to 1.6 inches
and ample MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (per 18Z SPC mesoanalysis). The
upstream environment across northeastern TX into southeastern OK
showed slightly higher instability and initiation of convection
across the Red River. Low to mid-level flow supports fast motions
of 40-60 kt toward the northeast but 850 mb winds are of a similar
magnitude and only slightly backed with respect to the mean wind,
supportive of training and repeating cell motions.

Over the next few hours, thunderstorms across AR are likely to
continue advancing toward the northeast with additional
development likely ahead of strong synoptic scale lift upstream.
There will likely be some areas of training within this cluster of
cells and potential for 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates over portions of
central AR, eventually moving into southeastern MO, western KY and
western TN. Another round of storms is likely as convection
associated with the cold front reaches the region after 21Z which
will carry additional potential for short term cell training. Both
rounds of heavy rain will have the potential to produce areas of
flash flooding, especially across the northern half of AR into the
MS Valley where antecedent rainfall has increased soil moisture
values relative to climatology per recent NASA SPoRT imagery.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!49Jr4Wqo2nyIGFGdIaeHfH3M7uxY8aY6OAuMXvGodrN_Yi-ZuIbm8L0cssMoCHVQD5QH=
PMFW1FQyQ4477lkvMoYa7HI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37238871 36878833 35878846 34918961 33639202=20
            33459354 33979443 35559266 36978946=20

=3D =3D =3D
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