Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0398
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 31 2023 18:37:28

ACUS11 KWNS 311837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311836=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-312030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0398
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...north central missouri into far southeastern Iowa

Concerning...Tornado Watch 93...

Valid 311836Z - 312030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe potential is expected to increase this afternoon as
storms mature into north-central and northeastern MO. All severe
hazards are possible including strong long-track tornadoes and very
large hail.

DISCUSSION...Initial cellular activity along a line from CDJ to GLY
developed ahead of the dryline across portions of western MO. While
low-level flow remains veered across the area, storm mode is
expected to remain mostly cellular as storms transit into portions
of north-central, northeastern MO and far southern IA over the next
couple of hours. Steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km and 60-70
kt of effective shear from the 18z SGF sounding remains highly
favorable for supercellular updrafts. Surface winds farther east are
more southerly, favoring low-level updraft rotation. The initial
severe threat is likely to remain large to very large hail given the
favorable storm mode and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Entrainment of
drier air may also favor a slower ramp up as storms take sometime to
mature. However, as storms shift towards portions of north-central
and northeastern MO/southern IA, the increase in low-level shear and
favorable buoyancy may support a greater risk for tornadoes later
this afternoon.

...Lyons.. 03/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-6qPHnADFCRaLWUXWzDSc9SE0lUqAIHUua2A6S_w9qOZM0ozz68ReV2fczVz9MxJoPNs8JrBh=
UwmUYIu8pWAMRWaYfg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40499317 40639289 40709267 40779225 40589206 40109194
            39629198 39259216 38889247 38709288 38649310 38759347
            38899363 39159384 39449385 39919392 40349341 40499317=20


=3D =3D =3D
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