Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0397
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 31 2023 18:33:28

ACUS11 KWNS 311833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311832=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-312030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0397
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...far northeast MO...west-central and central IL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 93...

Valid 311832Z - 312030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues.

SUMMARY...Monitoring near-storm environmental trends (surface
dewpoints and hodograph modification) through 330pm for increasing
tornado potential.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms near
Quincy, IL as of 130pm is quickly moving northeastward on the
northeastern rim of richer low-level moisture.  Surface observation
trends have shown surface dewpoints near the MS River rising into
the 60-62 deg F range.  Both the 18z Lincoln, IL and Davenport, IA
raobs showed lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios near 9.5 g/kg (upper
50s surface dewpoints).  Consequently, the increase from upper 50s
to lower 60s deg F dewpoints appears to be critical for increasing
the buoyancy profile per the raob observations and the latest
RAP/NAM forecast soundings across the discussion area.  Equally
important, the model-based forecast hodographs modify substantially
during the 130-330pm timeframe and become much more supportive for
low-level mesocyclone development.  If appreciable low-level
moisture (lower 60s dewpoints) can advect quickly enough
north-northeastward immediately in advance of the evolving cells,
consequently, the tornado risk will markedly increase.  In the
meantime, a gradual intensification is expected with large to
potentially very large hail (1.0-2.5 diameter hail) possible with
the stronger updrafts that evolve into supercells.

...Smith.. 03/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5lNyZzp1CxVorYyjQO1XopGdLA6CXBuAnRzjUVHYZrM1qXLITiZV0DCJPyx5X6n7NZpBqF-9m=
xocKb26ROuixubfZXk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40009207 40379193 41059030 41108972 40858932 40528920
            39829074 39809158 40009207=20


=3D =3D =3D
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