Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0396
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 31 2023 18:16:28

ACUS11 KWNS 311816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311816=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-311945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...Northeast TX into southeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 311816Z - 311945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of hail, damaging gusts, and a couple of
tornadoes are possible this afternoon. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing along a cold
front/effective dryline from northeast TX into southeast OK. Strong
heating of a moist low-level environment has resulted in MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg across the region, with effective shear of 50-70 kt
more than sufficient for organized storm structures. Storm coverage
across this region remains uncertain, with stronger large-scale
ascent expected to remain north of the region, but a few supercells
are likely to develop later this afternoon.=20

Large hail and locally strong/damaging gusts are expected to be the
primary initial threat, but low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient
to support a threat of a couple tornadoes as well, even with surface
winds likely remaining somewhat veered. Watch issuance is likely
later this afternoon in order to cover these threats.

...Dean/Hart.. 03/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9q1dgoBI8GEDAznH2cxECXhlSA7ekGC71kaWT4p62MW7SWYsvbIbWpAfcbZwqxp6d3ISqsuUz=
vOP7vEruObPkR1aSCs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   35049514 35339497 35209468 34409469 33299482 31619606
            31169694 30949780 30929845 31089834 31419789 31729745
            34389571 35049514=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.