Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0395
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 31 2023 17:53:58

ACUS11 KWNS 311753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311753=20
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-311930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Missouri and southwestern
Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 93...94...

Valid 311753Z - 311930Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93, 94 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat may gradually increase over the next
couple of hours as storms in northern AR mature and shift
northeastward. Strong shear downstream may support the potential for
strong long-track tornadoes. Additional storms are possible later in
the day.

DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a cluster
of strong to severe storms exiting northern AR into portions of
southeastern MO. Likely at the eastern edge of diurnal
destabilization, these storms have been slowly maturing over the
last 90 minutes. Already displaying supercell characteristics, these
storms are expected to move into a destabilizing and strongly
sheared environment across southeastern MO, southern IL and western
KY later this afternoon and into the evening. The initial severe
threat is likely to be large hail as storms may remain slightly
elevated and the environment destabilizes. As remaining MLCINH is
eroded, area RAP sounding show the environment becoming potentially
favorable for significant tornadoes with 0-1 km SRH of 300-500 m2/s2
and STP values of 4-5. The initial storms may be somewhat slow to
mature as inhibition is overcome, but multiple rounds of convection
appear likely with clearing skies and cumulus streets evident on
visible imagery farther west. HRRR and WOFS guidance show multiple
supercells with the potential for all hazards through this evening.

...Lyons/Hart.. 03/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-EujkgVd1dnwaUIa2hWB_0IQ_tvzpNSThhkDEUuV-Dawp9-hkpcvfdtuI5xXIDzbJbHQYQVEL=
o4C4TYq6FknS5qOz_k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36509172 36639204 36729208 37129220 37639174 38399030
            38748949 38888909 38908884 38768857 38388856 37488862
            37008873 36728887 36528929 36539026 36509172=20


=3D =3D =3D
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