Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0394
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 31 2023 17:51:57

ACUS11 KWNS 311751
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311751=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-311915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...far northern MO...southern IA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 93...

Valid 311751Z - 311915Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 93 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado potential will likely increase through 200-230pm
CDT.  Large to very large hail (2-3 inches diameter) is possible
with the more intense supercells.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows explosive supercell development
across northern MO into southern IA.  Surface temperatures have
warmed into the low-mid 70s with surface dewpoints in the 60-62 deg
F range.  The latest RAP forecast soundings show very steep surface
to 300-mb lapse rates (7.5 deg C/km) with impressive southwesterly
speed shear with height.  As the supercells mature and the surface
low deepens through mid afternoon, some backing of near-surface
winds is expected with low-level hodographs enlarging through 2-3pm.
 As this hodograph change occurs, tornado potential will markedly
increase.  Very large low-level buoyancy (0-3 km MLCAPE 200-300
J/kg) and the intensifying low-level mesocyclones will combine to
support the potential for strong tornadoes with supercells as they
rapidly move northeast into south-central IA and approach the I-80
corridor.

...Smith.. 03/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!40sAsVIiQx9r4AyqRnzpLlt6js9abndHPTsWZxisWWZmP0FELSeqd9qjcpBQVGZEhM8CVQmZF=
QL0rPEp6LMTroRHteY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40659436 41639353 41719298 41559246 41289236 40339316
            40159376 40299427 40659436=20


=3D =3D =3D
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