Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0393
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 31 2023 16:25:27

ACUS11 KWNS 311625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311624=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-311800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa...northern Missouri and
northwestern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 311624Z - 311800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Rapid supercell development is expected over the next 1 to
2 hours across portions of southwestern IA and northern MO. As
storms mature the risk for strong and long-track tornadoes, large
hail and damaging winds is expected to increase quickly through the
early afternoon. A PDS Tornado Watch is likely need soon.

DISCUSSION...As of 1600 UTC, visible satellite imagery showed
deepening cumulus and initial thunderstorms developing over portions
of far northeastern KS and northern MO. Located beneath the left
exit region of a powerful 100+ kt mid-level jet, large-scale dynamic
lift will continue to increase over a rapidly destabilizing warm
sector. SPC mesoanalysis and area RAP soundings show minimal
inhibition remains across the western part of the warm sector where
strong diurnal heating is ongoing. Farther northeast the airmass
remains somewhat sheltered with lingering cirrus, but dewpoints in
the upper 50s to low 60s F and steep mid-level lapse rates were
supporting 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Incipient thunderstorms should
develop within the deepening cumulus field and spread quickly
northeastward into a strongly sheared (ESRH 300-400 m2/s2)
environment. The current observational tends match consistently with
recent HRRR and WOFS guidance which shows numerous, potentially
tornadic, supercells moving across eastern IA this afternoon. In
addition, large to very large hail will be possible with storms
given cold temps aloft and strong vertical shear. Given the
significant threat for strong/long-track tornadoes, a PDS tornado
watch will likely be needed within the next hour.

...Lyons/Hart.. 03/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7oXZ15iYrGkVhdQFXyX7x3UTFNxeLtgut1WUj8Q3zyMWe-jQBVCZ6VazoRVvGW_XK3fQX72x4=
ksf2Yk1y5O52Rk-sBM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...SGF...
DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41938973 41538940 39158932 38568978 38199057 37969186
            38129347 38539378 39689409 40079423 40619435 41129446
            41529444 41949453 42279464 43209390 43549359 43689280
            43649163 43449092 42418988 41938973=20


=3D =3D =3D
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