Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0391
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 31 2023 15:45:00

ACUS11 KWNS 311544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311544=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-311745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0391
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Areas affected...ArkLaTex into parts of the Mid South

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 311544Z - 311745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for tornadic supercells will increase this
afternoon. PDS Tornado Watch issuance is eventually expected for
parts of the region.

DISCUSSION...Weak elevated convection has been ongoing across parts
of AR this morning, within a plume of rich low-level moisture and
along the periphery of a lead shortwave moving across eastern
portions of the central Plains. Additional convective development
has been noted recently into southeast OK and northeast TX.
Widespread cloudiness will tend to limit diurnal heating to some
extent, but gradual warming amid increasingly rich low-level
moisture will support MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg
range and weakening MLCINH with time.=20

Area VWPs already depict very favorable wind profiles, with strong
low-level (0-1 km SRH of 200-400 m2/s2) and deep-layer shear
(effective shear of 60+ kt) expected to persist through the day.
Tornadic supercells are expected to eventually evolve across the
region this afternoon, with a few longer-lived supercells capable of
producing strong/intense tornadoes possible, especially across AR
toward the MS Valley. Onset timing of the greater threat remains
somewhat uncertain, but one or more Tornado Watches will be required
by early afternoon, with PDS Tornado Watch issuance expected across
parts of AR toward the MS Valley.

...Dean/Hart.. 03/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6GI_E7n2KoEXiaqWXoVLtTtUcENB01m-0F1f0lt2MDckiRZaEyfSZiIlJhKqeeZuH3cwNiuC3=
j5397wIHulBv99UlQg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   33679230 32799416 32839543 33519562 35459404 36179335
            36339183 36309018 36208987 35848969 34908958 34059127
            33689222 33679230=20


=3D =3D =3D
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